possibly the most amazing fruit in the world

My quest is over. I've finally found the legendary Australian fingerlime (microcitrus australasica)!!! When you bite, the tiny, round vesicles of pulp have the same texture as caviar, and taste like a super fresh and acid lime. Incredible. I was lucky enough to find a couple of seedlings. They now rest in fresh soil and big clay pots, under the unforgiving Southern Californian sun. Hopefully they'll yield fruits within the next 12 months. Yowza!

I also tried the limequat (citrus fortunella), which nearly knocked me out.

This is all thanks to Dr. Kahn, who is the Principal Museum Scientist and curator of the University of California Riverside citrus collection (you can find more info there). The LA Times has a nice story about her and the citrus experiment station.

Technorati Tags:Australian fingerlime, citrus

latest polls and 1st round predictions

OK, there's a weird poll out there done by an outsourcing shop in Tunisia (see it here and here), that gives Royal at 25% and the three others (Sarko, Bayrou and Le Pen) between 17% and 20%... I don't buy it - their assumption is that Le Pen will draw a lot of voters away from Sarkozy. I don't think so. But then again, we might be in for a huge surprise on Sunday. It would not be the first time the pollsters are so completely wrong...

Of note: there's been a slight uptick in Royal contracts at Intrade.com - perhaps this is a harbinger of a 1st round shocker. Intrade is pretty good (and still gives Sarkozy as the likely winner by an impossibly high margin.)

I will make a prediction for the record, and for the hell of it:
Sarko: 29%
Royal: 24%
Bayrou: 17%
Le Pen: 17%

Technorati Tags:Nicolas Sarkozy, Ségolène Royal, François Bayrou, Jean-Marie Le Pen, France, presidential election, election prediction, polls, sondages, prédictions, élection présidentielle

Holocaust survivor dies in Virginia Tech Massacre

That is a tragic and incredibly powerful story (from AP):

"JERUSALEM (AP) - Liviu Librescu survived the Nazi Holocaust. He died trying to keep a gunman from shooting his students in a killing spree at Virginia Tech - a heroic feat later recounted in e-mails from students to his wife.

Librescu, an aeronautics engineer and teacher at the school for 20 years, saved the lives of several students by using his body to barricade a classroom door before he was gunned down in Monday's massacre, which coincided with Holocaust Remembrance Day. His son, Joe Librescu, told The Associated Press on Tuesday that his mother received e-mails from students shortly after learning of her husband's death.

"My father blocked the doorway with his body and asked the students to flee," Joe Librescu said in a telephone interview from his home outside of Tel Aviv. "Students started opening windows and jumping out."

I think that qualifies as heroism.
Godspeed to you Prof. Librescu.

Technorati Tags:Liviu Librescu, Virginia Tech massacre, Holocaust

polling trends

Technorati Tags:polls, election, France, élection présidentielle, Sarkozy, Royal, Bayrou, sondages, predictions

French elections - new polls, new predictions

Two polls released today yield a tie between Royal and Sarkozy in the runoff election. Is that realistic? Is that possible? Should Royal supporters rejoice? I am not a polling expert, but from what I understand, trends matter more than actual poll numbers. In that regard, there seems to be a slight uptick in favor of Royal in the past week or so. It is hard to say if this is noise or a key reversal. If anything, it points to the inability of the polling outfits to figure out France's electorate. Libération pins this volatility on the "popular classes" which are usually much less engaged in politics, and therefore much less likely to identify with a party (let alone an ideology).

Let's take a quick look at the numbers (summary of the CSA poll here - the changes are compared to the previous CSA poll).

1st round

Sarkozy: 27% (+1)
Royal: 25% (+2)
Bayrou: 19% (-2)
Le Pen: : 15,5% (+0.5)
Other left-wing: 10,5% (+0.5%)
Other right-wing: 3% (-0.5%)


2nd round

Sarkozy: 50%
Royal: 50%

Sarkozy: 46%
Bayrou: 54%


The way the get to that result is mystifying. If you add Royal+left-wing+1/3 Bayrou, she's still stuck at around 41%. If you assume 1/2 of Bayrou's voters come from the Socialist Party, then she's at around 44%. Again, the only way Royal pushes Sarkozy into a close race is if she makes a serious dent in Le Pen's constituency (the 15.5% is I think somewhat underweighted, perhaps by 2%). Possible, but unlikely.

Most other polls (including one released today/wednesday in Paris) give a 51/49 in favor of Sarkozy. So it all points to tightening of the race. The key for Royal will be to score very well in the first round, so as to create a sense of momentum in public opinion.

I don't see how Bayrou gets to the second round. The numbers and the trend are pointing to a third-place finish. The real question is whether he will negotiate something with the Socialists or fall back to his no-no position (which would be the same as tacitly endorsing Sarkozy). One should remember that his party - however tiny - largely depends on right-wing voters and the UMP apparatus. If he goes in with Royal, a lot of his party members will be in danger of losing their seats in Parliament (especially if Sarkozy wins : the knives will be drawn, and whatever is left of the UDF will be on the chopping block). On top of that, what can he negotiate? They will need to present a governing platform and campaign together. Somehow, it doesn't seem possible. The Socialist party hacks won't stand for that - they'd rather lose than having to deal with Bayrou as prime minister and Royal as President for 5 years. That would not necessarily be a bad scenario for France, though. Bayrou is an honorable guy.

Intrade.com still predicts a Sarkozy win by a wide margin. I'd guess the 1st round will dramatically readjust the numbers.

Technorati Tags: Sarkozy, Royal, Bayrou, elections, France, French presidential elections, predictions, élection présidentielle, prédictions

Sarkozy will win

At this point, with 10 days left before the 1st round, I don't see how the other candidates can turn things around. I am calling a Sarkozy win. It's not taking a big risk to predict that. He just played it too well : I mean this is a guy who says idiotic things every other day, and manages to get credit for them. And underneath the rhetorical flourishes, he's going to pardon Chirac and try to systematically destroy what is left of France's redistributive policies. It does not mean it will succeed, but... The funniest part is that all the ploucs and petits blancs who are going to vote for him out of "exasperation" as he said, are the ones who are going to suffer most from his neo-liberal policies. This marks the beginning of something (we got hints of it in 2002) : just like in the United Sates, the French lower classes now vote against their very own interests.

It is very sad indeed that it all proceeds from a gross misrecognition of France's real problems. I believe they are more institutional than social. The French can and do compete very well in the globalized economy. As in many other developed countries, the bottom 20% seem to be left behind and the government no longer seems interested in promoting proactive policies to retrain and retool. That is an expression of who really "owns" the State and the levers of power, so to speak. The top quintile is doing very well and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Strong euro, climbing stock market, shrinking taxes, cheap health care and cheap world-class education. What's not to love?

Technorati Tags:Sarkozy, France, election predictions, élection présidentielle

Enough with the freaking folklore!

I mean what the hell!!!??? Another horrible orientalist article by the NYTimes. Please. A bunch of monks singing in Latin (which, by the way, indicates that these particular monks belong to the ultra-reactionary side of the Catholic Church).It's set up like a freaking Pagnol piece. "Men of another age." The wonderful traditions. The heritage. The cute locals. Blah blah blah. Who cares? Why waste the ink and/or the bandwidth on such contrived and atmospheric articles? I mean how doest that tell us anything of substance about contemporary France? Nothing. 40% of French don't believe in anything. Another 30% or so declare themselves agnostic. 20% attend religious services regularly (that is, more than 4 times a year or so).

Yet another drive-by article that reveals more about America's obsession with identity and authenticity and old stones.

Addition: there's even worse - two for the price of one.

Technorati tags: France, the New York Times, journalism, curiosities

Sarkozy on pedophilia and genetics

More funny bits from Nicolas Sarkozy. I'm translating his remarks in Philosophie Magazine - yes, there is such a thing in France, and better yet, it has a readership large enough for the Sarkozy PR machine to actually send the boss for an interview. (As an aside, I wonder who are Philosophie Magazine's main advertisers : Patek Philippe? Viagra? Prozac? tour operators specializing in swingers?)

So here's what Sarkozy said to Michel Onfray. The interviewer is a somewhat famous French author - if you can imagine a male cross between the two Marthas (Stewart and Nussbaum). He's the kind of celebrity who utters weighty platitudes without a shred of self-doubt, and wraps them in what passes for elegance in the age of mass consumption. I guess he made Sarkozy feel well at-ease.

But, without further ado, straight from the horse's mouth (my translation):
"For my part, I am inclined to think that one is born a pedophile, and that it is a real problem that we do not know how to cure that pathology. There are 1200 or 1300 youth who commit suicide every year in France, it is not because their parents did not take good care of them! But because, genetically, there is a fragility, a preexisting pain (...) Circumstances are not everything, the role of what's innate is immense."

Besides the slightly comical bit on heredity and criminal pathology, which betrays a complete ignorance of even the most basic notions of modern genetics, I think the important point has to do with his critique of what he calls "circumstances." For a neo-liberal like Sarkozy, the link between criminality and social conditions must be severed at all costs. Because otherwise, the logical next step to reduce criminality is to promote and implement redistributive policies. Hence his critique of circumstances. Hence his not-so-subtle racialization of criminality (which also betrays a complete ignorance of population genetics, and a primitive understanding of phenotypical variations among humans). To Sarkozy, one does not become a pedophile or a suicidal teen or a petty criminal because of circumstances. Therefore, allocating resources to correct and transform "circumstances" is a huge waste of governmental monies. Sarkozy tried to pass a law last year that would mandate monitoring unruly kids in schools, in order to detect supposed criminal predispositions. This is true.

In a sense, Sarkozy adheres to the worst of sociobiology. He does not believe that government can alleviate social ills. In fact, he does not believe that there is a such a thing as socially-determined pathological behaviors. I'd bet that he'd have agreed with old Maggie Thatcher when she claimed that she did not know what society was.

Finally, Sarkozy's predisposition to privilege inherited traits is perfectly consistent with his political philosophy. He believes in Burke's "old customs and traditions." He believes in the "innate." He believes in abolishing the inheritance tax.

He asked for it!

Yesterday, Jean-Marie Le Pen declared himself the candidate of the "terroir," as opposed to Nicolas Sarkozy, a "candidate who is coming from immigration." Charming.

This raises many questions for Sarkozy. After spending so much time and energy pointing fingers at immigrants, Sarkozy must now address the fact he himself is the son of an immigrant. This in fact is a golden opportunity for him : at first he can highlight that he is the living proof that the children of immigrants can succeed in France. And then he can also hint that while the son of an immigrant, his father was not "that" type of immigrants, times were different etc etc... This is virulent, and will certainly get him jeers on the left. But it's tactically correct if he wants to attract Le Pen's voters. Sarkozy is not one to shy away from political controversy - in fact, much like G.W. Bush, he thrives on it. Every other day he says something outrageous, that blurs the campaign's narrative and throws off his opponents (the ministry of immigration and national identity, the pedophilia gene, et. al.)

For now, his lieutenants are screaming that they are shocked, shocked at Jean-Marie Le Pen's remarks. That's the first phase. Next, Sarko himself will intervene.

Technorati tags: Sarkozy, Le Pen, France, elections, élection présidentielle

the Prez digs alternative fuels

Read the article - it's pretty funny.
Plug it in, fire it up, Mr President.

Technorati tags: Bush, alternative fuels, funny

new poll

In the latest poll (to be published tomorrow by the Journal du Dimanche), Nicolas Sarkozy is rising. Here are the numbers (IFOP/Journal du Dimanche):

First round :

• Sarkozy : 29.5% (+2 - compared to the last IFOP poll)
  
• Royal: 22% (-1)
  
• Bayrou: 19% (-1)
• Le Pen : 14% (=)
• Left-wing residuals (including greens) : 12.5% (=)
  
• Right-wing residuals : 2.5% (-0.5)

Second round :

• Sarkozy : 54% (+2)
  
• Royal : 46% (-2)

Royal is stuck. Even in the unlikely event that she captures 1/2 of Bayrou's votes and all the left-wing vote besides her own, she's still at 44.5% in this poll. Sarkozy manages to attract most of Le Pen's voters, plain and simple. He was quoted in yesterday's Le Monde as a saying that he believes the election will be decided on the right. So far, the numbers bear out his analysis. Of course he will always be better at deploying right-wing, I-love-France, law-and-order, tough-on-crime discourse than Royal.

A friend of mine was noticing that none of the mainstream is really talking about the Banlieues. As a matter of fact, only Le Pen is addressing the Banlieues. He pulled a stunt yesterday by going to Argenteuil, described by the New York Times' Elaine Sciolino as an "ethnic enclave." Woooooo. Be afraid. Be very afraid.

In reality, Argenteuil is a somewhat diverse town, with a cute little center by the Seine - painted by Monet and the impressionists. I've been there in the past. It's like most small towns outside of Paris : not much going on, but cute. There are a bunch of housing projects on the outskirts. Argenteuil's location in the Northwest of Paris indicates that it is fact a somewhat wealthy suburb, where the contact between the well-off and the poor tends to create more frictions than in more socially homogeneous places (think Neuilly and Saint-Denis on both ends of the spectrum). So Argenteuil, "ethnic enclave?" Only by a gross editorial stretch of the imagination. Come on Sciolino! Don't be that lazy! And stop listening to your fixer, Ariane Bernard, who is obviously repeating the talking points of Sarkozy's UMP.

Technorati tags: France, élection présidentielle, presidential election, Sarkozy, Royal, Le Pen, New York Times, Elaine Sciolino, Ariane Bernard

back of the envelope calculations (II)

A new CSA poll to be published tomorrow by Le Parisien/I-télé shows the following results :

• Sarkozy : 26% (=)
  
• Royal : 23% (-1)
  
• Bayrou : 21.5% (+1.5)
  
• Le Pen : 16% (+1)
• Residual left-wing candidates : 8.5%
• Residual right-wing candidates : 2.5%

These results do not seem to significantly alter our previous assessment. If you split Bayrou's support 60%-40% in favor of Sarkozy, it still leaves Sarkozy's second round support (without Le Pen) in the vicinity of 42%. The same goes for Royal. Both still need to appeal to the National Front first round voters, and therefore cannot really change their strategy.

The only potential wild-card is a resurgence of Bayrou. If he resumes his upward trend, he might very well be Sarkozy's adversary in the runoff election. In which case he will most likely win. To achieve that he needs to chip away at Ségolène Royal's base. It is quite possible, as long as he continues to appeal to the college-educated professionals who usually vote for the Socialists. He must remind them of Royal's courting of the lower-class angry vote. He must call upon their self-representation as enlightened, moderate, rational and urban. A socialist member of Parliament said the other day that he would turn off the TV, plug his ears and vote for Ségolène Royal. Many voters on the left feel the same. To close the deal, Bayrou needs to convince them that he is truly one of them. For instance, he said today that Sarkozy's campaign strategy is to deliberately "pit people against one another." He also expressed the view, in today's Libération, that France's main problem stemmed from the fact that the "the country is run by guys from privileged families who won an academic competition at age 20." See my post on that topic. Even though, as François Hollande bitingly remarked, Bayrou plays the traveler without baggage, I can't help but like the guy. Expect more straight talk on his part in the final two weeks of the campaign.

Technorati tags:Sarkozy, Ségolène Royal, François Bayrou, France, election, présidentielle, polls, sondages