back of the envelope calculations (II)

A new CSA poll to be published tomorrow by Le Parisien/I-télé shows the following results :

• Sarkozy : 26% (=)
  
• Royal : 23% (-1)
  
• Bayrou : 21.5% (+1.5)
  
• Le Pen : 16% (+1)
• Residual left-wing candidates : 8.5%
• Residual right-wing candidates : 2.5%

These results do not seem to significantly alter our previous assessment. If you split Bayrou's support 60%-40% in favor of Sarkozy, it still leaves Sarkozy's second round support (without Le Pen) in the vicinity of 42%. The same goes for Royal. Both still need to appeal to the National Front first round voters, and therefore cannot really change their strategy.

The only potential wild-card is a resurgence of Bayrou. If he resumes his upward trend, he might very well be Sarkozy's adversary in the runoff election. In which case he will most likely win. To achieve that he needs to chip away at Ségolène Royal's base. It is quite possible, as long as he continues to appeal to the college-educated professionals who usually vote for the Socialists. He must remind them of Royal's courting of the lower-class angry vote. He must call upon their self-representation as enlightened, moderate, rational and urban. A socialist member of Parliament said the other day that he would turn off the TV, plug his ears and vote for Ségolène Royal. Many voters on the left feel the same. To close the deal, Bayrou needs to convince them that he is truly one of them. For instance, he said today that Sarkozy's campaign strategy is to deliberately "pit people against one another." He also expressed the view, in today's Libération, that France's main problem stemmed from the fact that the "the country is run by guys from privileged families who won an academic competition at age 20." See my post on that topic. Even though, as François Hollande bitingly remarked, Bayrou plays the traveler without baggage, I can't help but like the guy. Expect more straight talk on his part in the final two weeks of the campaign.

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