latest polls and 1st round predictions

OK, there's a weird poll out there done by an outsourcing shop in Tunisia (see it here and here), that gives Royal at 25% and the three others (Sarko, Bayrou and Le Pen) between 17% and 20%... I don't buy it - their assumption is that Le Pen will draw a lot of voters away from Sarkozy. I don't think so. But then again, we might be in for a huge surprise on Sunday. It would not be the first time the pollsters are so completely wrong...

Of note: there's been a slight uptick in Royal contracts at Intrade.com - perhaps this is a harbinger of a 1st round shocker. Intrade is pretty good (and still gives Sarkozy as the likely winner by an impossibly high margin.)

I will make a prediction for the record, and for the hell of it:
Sarko: 29%
Royal: 24%
Bayrou: 17%
Le Pen: 17%

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polling trends

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French elections - new polls, new predictions

Two polls released today yield a tie between Royal and Sarkozy in the runoff election. Is that realistic? Is that possible? Should Royal supporters rejoice? I am not a polling expert, but from what I understand, trends matter more than actual poll numbers. In that regard, there seems to be a slight uptick in favor of Royal in the past week or so. It is hard to say if this is noise or a key reversal. If anything, it points to the inability of the polling outfits to figure out France's electorate. Libération pins this volatility on the "popular classes" which are usually much less engaged in politics, and therefore much less likely to identify with a party (let alone an ideology).

Let's take a quick look at the numbers (summary of the CSA poll here - the changes are compared to the previous CSA poll).

1st round

Sarkozy: 27% (+1)
Royal: 25% (+2)
Bayrou: 19% (-2)
Le Pen: : 15,5% (+0.5)
Other left-wing: 10,5% (+0.5%)
Other right-wing: 3% (-0.5%)


2nd round

Sarkozy: 50%
Royal: 50%

Sarkozy: 46%
Bayrou: 54%


The way the get to that result is mystifying. If you add Royal+left-wing+1/3 Bayrou, she's still stuck at around 41%. If you assume 1/2 of Bayrou's voters come from the Socialist Party, then she's at around 44%. Again, the only way Royal pushes Sarkozy into a close race is if she makes a serious dent in Le Pen's constituency (the 15.5% is I think somewhat underweighted, perhaps by 2%). Possible, but unlikely.

Most other polls (including one released today/wednesday in Paris) give a 51/49 in favor of Sarkozy. So it all points to tightening of the race. The key for Royal will be to score very well in the first round, so as to create a sense of momentum in public opinion.

I don't see how Bayrou gets to the second round. The numbers and the trend are pointing to a third-place finish. The real question is whether he will negotiate something with the Socialists or fall back to his no-no position (which would be the same as tacitly endorsing Sarkozy). One should remember that his party - however tiny - largely depends on right-wing voters and the UMP apparatus. If he goes in with Royal, a lot of his party members will be in danger of losing their seats in Parliament (especially if Sarkozy wins : the knives will be drawn, and whatever is left of the UDF will be on the chopping block). On top of that, what can he negotiate? They will need to present a governing platform and campaign together. Somehow, it doesn't seem possible. The Socialist party hacks won't stand for that - they'd rather lose than having to deal with Bayrou as prime minister and Royal as President for 5 years. That would not necessarily be a bad scenario for France, though. Bayrou is an honorable guy.

Intrade.com still predicts a Sarkozy win by a wide margin. I'd guess the 1st round will dramatically readjust the numbers.

Technorati Tags: Sarkozy, Royal, Bayrou, elections, France, French presidential elections, predictions, élection présidentielle, prédictions

back of the envelope calculations (II)

A new CSA poll to be published tomorrow by Le Parisien/I-télé shows the following results :

• Sarkozy : 26% (=)
  
• Royal : 23% (-1)
  
• Bayrou : 21.5% (+1.5)
  
• Le Pen : 16% (+1)
• Residual left-wing candidates : 8.5%
• Residual right-wing candidates : 2.5%

These results do not seem to significantly alter our previous assessment. If you split Bayrou's support 60%-40% in favor of Sarkozy, it still leaves Sarkozy's second round support (without Le Pen) in the vicinity of 42%. The same goes for Royal. Both still need to appeal to the National Front first round voters, and therefore cannot really change their strategy.

The only potential wild-card is a resurgence of Bayrou. If he resumes his upward trend, he might very well be Sarkozy's adversary in the runoff election. In which case he will most likely win. To achieve that he needs to chip away at Ségolène Royal's base. It is quite possible, as long as he continues to appeal to the college-educated professionals who usually vote for the Socialists. He must remind them of Royal's courting of the lower-class angry vote. He must call upon their self-representation as enlightened, moderate, rational and urban. A socialist member of Parliament said the other day that he would turn off the TV, plug his ears and vote for Ségolène Royal. Many voters on the left feel the same. To close the deal, Bayrou needs to convince them that he is truly one of them. For instance, he said today that Sarkozy's campaign strategy is to deliberately "pit people against one another." He also expressed the view, in today's Libération, that France's main problem stemmed from the fact that the "the country is run by guys from privileged families who won an academic competition at age 20." See my post on that topic. Even though, as François Hollande bitingly remarked, Bayrou plays the traveler without baggage, I can't help but like the guy. Expect more straight talk on his part in the final two weeks of the campaign.

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