Sarkozy wins

It's not like it's such an exciting news, but yes he will win. My best guess is something like 53%-47%. Could be even higher. The votes are just not there for Royal, and Sarkozy is very, very good at retail politics. He made a lot of promises to many different constituencies, and he was convincing enough to get the support of both the disenfranchised and the upper class. He will abolish the inheritance tax AND lower the exchange rate of the Euro. Guess which one he will be able to accomplish. But as we say in France, promises only bind those who believe in them... Even if I find the whole thing baffling, I must admit that the alternative was not exactly thrilling either.

In the grand scheme of things, it does not matter that much. It is only France after all. It's a very nice vacation spot, especially for all the foodies and other wine enthusiasts out there. Ahh, Anne Gros, Bernard Pacaud and Joël Robuchon... Culture and all that - not so hot. Great indie filmmakers. Awesome trains, too. And Manu Chao.

latest polls and 1st round predictions

OK, there's a weird poll out there done by an outsourcing shop in Tunisia (see it here and here), that gives Royal at 25% and the three others (Sarko, Bayrou and Le Pen) between 17% and 20%... I don't buy it - their assumption is that Le Pen will draw a lot of voters away from Sarkozy. I don't think so. But then again, we might be in for a huge surprise on Sunday. It would not be the first time the pollsters are so completely wrong...

Of note: there's been a slight uptick in Royal contracts at Intrade.com - perhaps this is a harbinger of a 1st round shocker. Intrade is pretty good (and still gives Sarkozy as the likely winner by an impossibly high margin.)

I will make a prediction for the record, and for the hell of it:
Sarko: 29%
Royal: 24%
Bayrou: 17%
Le Pen: 17%

Technorati Tags:Nicolas Sarkozy, Ségolène Royal, François Bayrou, Jean-Marie Le Pen, France, presidential election, election prediction, polls, sondages, prédictions, élection présidentielle

polling trends

Technorati Tags:polls, election, France, élection présidentielle, Sarkozy, Royal, Bayrou, sondages, predictions

French elections - new polls, new predictions

Two polls released today yield a tie between Royal and Sarkozy in the runoff election. Is that realistic? Is that possible? Should Royal supporters rejoice? I am not a polling expert, but from what I understand, trends matter more than actual poll numbers. In that regard, there seems to be a slight uptick in favor of Royal in the past week or so. It is hard to say if this is noise or a key reversal. If anything, it points to the inability of the polling outfits to figure out France's electorate. Libération pins this volatility on the "popular classes" which are usually much less engaged in politics, and therefore much less likely to identify with a party (let alone an ideology).

Let's take a quick look at the numbers (summary of the CSA poll here - the changes are compared to the previous CSA poll).

1st round

Sarkozy: 27% (+1)
Royal: 25% (+2)
Bayrou: 19% (-2)
Le Pen: : 15,5% (+0.5)
Other left-wing: 10,5% (+0.5%)
Other right-wing: 3% (-0.5%)


2nd round

Sarkozy: 50%
Royal: 50%

Sarkozy: 46%
Bayrou: 54%


The way the get to that result is mystifying. If you add Royal+left-wing+1/3 Bayrou, she's still stuck at around 41%. If you assume 1/2 of Bayrou's voters come from the Socialist Party, then she's at around 44%. Again, the only way Royal pushes Sarkozy into a close race is if she makes a serious dent in Le Pen's constituency (the 15.5% is I think somewhat underweighted, perhaps by 2%). Possible, but unlikely.

Most other polls (including one released today/wednesday in Paris) give a 51/49 in favor of Sarkozy. So it all points to tightening of the race. The key for Royal will be to score very well in the first round, so as to create a sense of momentum in public opinion.

I don't see how Bayrou gets to the second round. The numbers and the trend are pointing to a third-place finish. The real question is whether he will negotiate something with the Socialists or fall back to his no-no position (which would be the same as tacitly endorsing Sarkozy). One should remember that his party - however tiny - largely depends on right-wing voters and the UMP apparatus. If he goes in with Royal, a lot of his party members will be in danger of losing their seats in Parliament (especially if Sarkozy wins : the knives will be drawn, and whatever is left of the UDF will be on the chopping block). On top of that, what can he negotiate? They will need to present a governing platform and campaign together. Somehow, it doesn't seem possible. The Socialist party hacks won't stand for that - they'd rather lose than having to deal with Bayrou as prime minister and Royal as President for 5 years. That would not necessarily be a bad scenario for France, though. Bayrou is an honorable guy.

Intrade.com still predicts a Sarkozy win by a wide margin. I'd guess the 1st round will dramatically readjust the numbers.

Technorati Tags: Sarkozy, Royal, Bayrou, elections, France, French presidential elections, predictions, élection présidentielle, prédictions

new poll

In the latest poll (to be published tomorrow by the Journal du Dimanche), Nicolas Sarkozy is rising. Here are the numbers (IFOP/Journal du Dimanche):

First round :

• Sarkozy : 29.5% (+2 - compared to the last IFOP poll)
  
• Royal: 22% (-1)
  
• Bayrou: 19% (-1)
• Le Pen : 14% (=)
• Left-wing residuals (including greens) : 12.5% (=)
  
• Right-wing residuals : 2.5% (-0.5)

Second round :

• Sarkozy : 54% (+2)
  
• Royal : 46% (-2)

Royal is stuck. Even in the unlikely event that she captures 1/2 of Bayrou's votes and all the left-wing vote besides her own, she's still at 44.5% in this poll. Sarkozy manages to attract most of Le Pen's voters, plain and simple. He was quoted in yesterday's Le Monde as a saying that he believes the election will be decided on the right. So far, the numbers bear out his analysis. Of course he will always be better at deploying right-wing, I-love-France, law-and-order, tough-on-crime discourse than Royal.

A friend of mine was noticing that none of the mainstream is really talking about the Banlieues. As a matter of fact, only Le Pen is addressing the Banlieues. He pulled a stunt yesterday by going to Argenteuil, described by the New York Times' Elaine Sciolino as an "ethnic enclave." Woooooo. Be afraid. Be very afraid.

In reality, Argenteuil is a somewhat diverse town, with a cute little center by the Seine - painted by Monet and the impressionists. I've been there in the past. It's like most small towns outside of Paris : not much going on, but cute. There are a bunch of housing projects on the outskirts. Argenteuil's location in the Northwest of Paris indicates that it is fact a somewhat wealthy suburb, where the contact between the well-off and the poor tends to create more frictions than in more socially homogeneous places (think Neuilly and Saint-Denis on both ends of the spectrum). So Argenteuil, "ethnic enclave?" Only by a gross editorial stretch of the imagination. Come on Sciolino! Don't be that lazy! And stop listening to your fixer, Ariane Bernard, who is obviously repeating the talking points of Sarkozy's UMP.

Technorati tags: France, élection présidentielle, presidential election, Sarkozy, Royal, Le Pen, New York Times, Elaine Sciolino, Ariane Bernard

back of the envelope calculations (II)

A new CSA poll to be published tomorrow by Le Parisien/I-télé shows the following results :

• Sarkozy : 26% (=)
  
• Royal : 23% (-1)
  
• Bayrou : 21.5% (+1.5)
  
• Le Pen : 16% (+1)
• Residual left-wing candidates : 8.5%
• Residual right-wing candidates : 2.5%

These results do not seem to significantly alter our previous assessment. If you split Bayrou's support 60%-40% in favor of Sarkozy, it still leaves Sarkozy's second round support (without Le Pen) in the vicinity of 42%. The same goes for Royal. Both still need to appeal to the National Front first round voters, and therefore cannot really change their strategy.

The only potential wild-card is a resurgence of Bayrou. If he resumes his upward trend, he might very well be Sarkozy's adversary in the runoff election. In which case he will most likely win. To achieve that he needs to chip away at Ségolène Royal's base. It is quite possible, as long as he continues to appeal to the college-educated professionals who usually vote for the Socialists. He must remind them of Royal's courting of the lower-class angry vote. He must call upon their self-representation as enlightened, moderate, rational and urban. A socialist member of Parliament said the other day that he would turn off the TV, plug his ears and vote for Ségolène Royal. Many voters on the left feel the same. To close the deal, Bayrou needs to convince them that he is truly one of them. For instance, he said today that Sarkozy's campaign strategy is to deliberately "pit people against one another." He also expressed the view, in today's Libération, that France's main problem stemmed from the fact that the "the country is run by guys from privileged families who won an academic competition at age 20." See my post on that topic. Even though, as François Hollande bitingly remarked, Bayrou plays the traveler without baggage, I can't help but like the guy. Expect more straight talk on his part in the final two weeks of the campaign.

Technorati tags:Sarkozy, Ségolène Royal, François Bayrou, France, election, présidentielle, polls, sondages