latest polls and 1st round predictions
OK, there's a weird poll out there done by an outsourcing shop in Tunisia (see it here and here), that gives Royal at 25% and the three others (Sarko, Bayrou and Le Pen) between 17% and 20%... I don't buy it - their assumption is that Le Pen will draw a lot of voters away from Sarkozy. I don't think so. But then again, we might be in for a huge surprise on Sunday. It would not be the first time the pollsters are so completely wrong...
Of note: there's been a slight uptick in Royal contracts at Intrade.com - perhaps this is a harbinger of a 1st round shocker. Intrade is pretty good (and still gives Sarkozy as the likely winner by an impossibly high margin.)
I will make a prediction for the record, and for the hell of it:
Sarko: 29%
Royal: 24%
Bayrou: 17%
Le Pen: 17%
