French elections - new polls, new predictions
Two polls released today yield a tie between Royal and Sarkozy in the runoff election. Is that realistic? Is that possible? Should Royal supporters rejoice? I am not a polling expert, but from what I understand, trends matter more than actual poll numbers. In that regard, there seems to be a slight uptick in favor of Royal in the past week or so. It is hard to say if this is noise or a key reversal. If anything, it points to the inability of the polling outfits to figure out France's electorate. Libération pins this volatility on the "popular classes" which are usually much less engaged in politics, and therefore much less likely to identify with a party (let alone an ideology).
Let's take a quick look at the numbers (summary of the CSA poll here - the changes are compared to the previous CSA poll).
1st round
Sarkozy: 27% (+1)
Royal: 25% (+2)
Bayrou: 19% (-2)
Le Pen: : 15,5% (+0.5)
Other left-wing: 10,5% (+0.5%)
Other right-wing: 3% (-0.5%)
2nd round
Sarkozy: 50%
Royal: 50%
Sarkozy: 46%
Bayrou: 54%
The way the get to that result is mystifying. If you add Royal+left-wing+1/3 Bayrou, she's still stuck at around 41%. If you assume 1/2 of Bayrou's voters come from the Socialist Party, then she's at around 44%. Again, the only way Royal pushes Sarkozy into a close race is if she makes a serious dent in Le Pen's constituency (the 15.5% is I think somewhat underweighted, perhaps by 2%). Possible, but unlikely.
Most other polls (including one released today/wednesday in Paris) give a 51/49 in favor of Sarkozy. So it all points to tightening of the race. The key for Royal will be to score very well in the first round, so as to create a sense of momentum in public opinion.
I don't see how Bayrou gets to the second round. The numbers and the trend are pointing to a third-place finish. The real question is whether he will negotiate something with the Socialists or fall back to his no-no position (which would be the same as tacitly endorsing Sarkozy). One should remember that his party - however tiny - largely depends on right-wing voters and the UMP apparatus. If he goes in with Royal, a lot of his party members will be in danger of losing their seats in Parliament (especially if Sarkozy wins : the knives will be drawn, and whatever is left of the UDF will be on the chopping block). On top of that, what can he negotiate? They will need to present a governing platform and campaign together. Somehow, it doesn't seem possible. The Socialist party hacks won't stand for that - they'd rather lose than having to deal with Bayrou as prime minister and Royal as President for 5 years. That would not necessarily be a bad scenario for France, though. Bayrou is an honorable guy.
Intrade.com still predicts a Sarkozy win by a wide margin. I'd guess the 1st round will dramatically readjust the numbers.
