new poll

In the latest poll (to be published tomorrow by the Journal du Dimanche), Nicolas Sarkozy is rising. Here are the numbers (IFOP/Journal du Dimanche):

First round :

• Sarkozy : 29.5% (+2 - compared to the last IFOP poll)
  
• Royal: 22% (-1)
  
• Bayrou: 19% (-1)
• Le Pen : 14% (=)
• Left-wing residuals (including greens) : 12.5% (=)
  
• Right-wing residuals : 2.5% (-0.5)

Second round :

• Sarkozy : 54% (+2)
  
• Royal : 46% (-2)

Royal is stuck. Even in the unlikely event that she captures 1/2 of Bayrou's votes and all the left-wing vote besides her own, she's still at 44.5% in this poll. Sarkozy manages to attract most of Le Pen's voters, plain and simple. He was quoted in yesterday's Le Monde as a saying that he believes the election will be decided on the right. So far, the numbers bear out his analysis. Of course he will always be better at deploying right-wing, I-love-France, law-and-order, tough-on-crime discourse than Royal.

A friend of mine was noticing that none of the mainstream is really talking about the Banlieues. As a matter of fact, only Le Pen is addressing the Banlieues. He pulled a stunt yesterday by going to Argenteuil, described by the New York Times' Elaine Sciolino as an "ethnic enclave." Woooooo. Be afraid. Be very afraid.

In reality, Argenteuil is a somewhat diverse town, with a cute little center by the Seine - painted by Monet and the impressionists. I've been there in the past. It's like most small towns outside of Paris : not much going on, but cute. There are a bunch of housing projects on the outskirts. Argenteuil's location in the Northwest of Paris indicates that it is fact a somewhat wealthy suburb, where the contact between the well-off and the poor tends to create more frictions than in more socially homogeneous places (think Neuilly and Saint-Denis on both ends of the spectrum). So Argenteuil, "ethnic enclave?" Only by a gross editorial stretch of the imagination. Come on Sciolino! Don't be that lazy! And stop listening to your fixer, Ariane Bernard, who is obviously repeating the talking points of Sarkozy's UMP.

Technorati tags: France, élection présidentielle, presidential election, Sarkozy, Royal, Le Pen, New York Times, Elaine Sciolino, Ariane Bernard