French election predictions : back of the envelope calculations

As it stands today, here's the latest IPSOS poll with a chart. As of today we have:

• Sarko (de Nagy-Bocza) : 31.5%
• Ségolène Royal : 25%
• François Bayrou : 18.5%
  
• Jean-Marie Le Pen : 13%
  
• residual candidates : 12%

According to the polling data, 13% have not expressed any opinion. A few things:

1. No way Le Pen is at 13%. Probably more by 2 or 3 points. Historically, Le Pen has underpolled because respondents do not readily disclose their predilection. One expects pollsters to correct for that bias, but still.
2. This week's Economist suggests that a good 5% of Sarkozy's declared supporters will in fact vote for Le Pen. While I don't believe that it is that high, it still should lower Sarkozy's 1st round score by a couple points.
3. Bayrou is out. Historically, Bayrou's natural constituency is made up of Christian Democrats and provincial notables. It accounts for basically 9% to 12% of the electorate. They will vote for Sarkozy in a runoff, even holding their nose - they always do. The remaining 6%-8% will most likely go to Ségolène Royal in the runoff.
4. So currently Sarkozy's safe votes add up to about : 29.5% (31.5% - 2% of Le Pen voters) + 12% (Bayrou) + 2 % (residuals like de Villiers and the Fishermen and Sportsmen guy) = 43.5%
   
5. Ségolène Royal's safe votes add up to : 25% (declared) + 6% (from Bayrou) + 7% (residual Trotskysts, Greens and anti-globalization) = 38%
6. Conclusion : as of today, Sarko and Ségo are basically tied.
   

Any way you look at it, both candidates need Le Pen votes to win. Hence the recent populist racist/patriotic hysteria. That is all there is to it.

The presidential election will be decided at the margins. Right now, Sarkozy de Nagy-Bocza is doing all the right things to take the prize.

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